Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Anastasiia Sobolieva, while the market favors Susan Bandecchi (64%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Courmayeur: Susan Bandecchi vs Anastasiia Sobolieva

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Anastasiia Sobolieva (60%) · Anastasiia Sobolieva at 37¢ · $487 held · ends Nov 3

Susan Bandecchi64¢Anastasiia Sobolieva36¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Anastasiia Sobolieva

Consensus Traders

Anastasiia Sobolieva 60%

Total Value

$487.34

Combined PnL

$26.11

Smart Money Entry

35.8¢ → 36.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAnastasiia Sobolieva at 37%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anastasiia Sobolieva

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Susan Bandecchi 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Susan Bandecchi64%

Anastasiia Sobolieva37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anastasiia Sobolieva3 traders

Total Value$355.3

Total Shares956

Combined PnL+$12.68

Susan Bandecchi2 traders

Total Value$132.04

Total Shares174

Combined PnL+$13.43

Anastasiia Sobolieva — 60%Susan Bandecchi — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotradecopyCTR	Anastasiia Sobolievaavg 37¢	$235.65	$238.84	+$3.18	49% 3651-3776 (7427)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Susan Bandecchiavg 50¢	$74.14	$83.79	+$9.65	56% 24547-18914 (43461)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Anastasiia Sobolievaavg 35¢	$56.7	$59.13	+$2.43	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Anastasiia Sobolievaavg 32¢	$50.27	$57.33	+$7.07	62% 13400-8249 (21649)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Susan Bandecchiavg 58.5¢	$44.47	$48.25	+$3.78	50% 17407-17735 (35142)

NotradecopyCTR

Anastasiia Sobolieva

Invested

$235.65

Value

$238.84

PnL

+$3.18

Record

49%

3651-3776 (7427)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Susan Bandecchi

Invested

$74.14

Value

$83.79

PnL

+$9.65

Record

56%

24547-18914 (43461)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Anastasiia Sobolieva

Invested

$56.7

Value

$59.13

PnL

+$2.43

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Anastasiia Sobolieva

Invested

$50.27

Value

$57.33

PnL

+$7.07

Record

62%

13400-8249 (21649)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Susan Bandecchi

Invested

$44.47

Value

$48.25

PnL

+$3.78

Record

50%

17407-17735 (35142)

Research grade

NeutralAnastasiia Sobolieva at 37%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Anastasiia Sobolieva

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Susan Bandecchi 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anastasiia Sobolieva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.