Guangzhou Open: Paula Badosa vs Carol Young Suh Lee

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Paula Badosa (71%) · Paula Badosa at 100¢ · $68K held · ends Nov 2

Paula Badosa>99¢Carol Young Suh Lee<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Paula Badosa

Consensus Traders

Paula Badosa 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$68.4K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

82.8¢ → 100¢

+21% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralPaula Badosa at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Paula Badosa

12 of 17 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Paula Badosa100%

Carol Young Suh Lee0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Paula Badosa12 traders

Total Value$58.9K

Total Shares60,832

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Carol Young Suh Lee5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares14,990

Combined PnL-$904.37

Paula Badosa — 71%Carol Young Suh Lee — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Paula Badosaavg 75.1¢	$18.8K	$20.7K	+$1.9K	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
RN1	Paula Badosaavg 88.7¢	$10.7K	$11.1K	+$443.67	54% 50820-42775 (93595)
MO Momo63	Paula Badosaavg 92.1¢	$10.1K	$10.0K	-$86.1	93% 756-57 (813)
HO HomeRunHazard	Paula Badosaavg 83¢	$8.4K	$9.4K	+$948.38	55% 14758-12309 (27067)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 40.3¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	-$87.9	51% 102-97 (199)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Paula Badosaavg 91.9¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$7.23	53% 12837-11424 (24261)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 9.1¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$298.54	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
└ Carol Young Suh Lee leg	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 9.1¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$78.52
└ Paula Badosa leg	Paula Badosaavg 53.3¢	$529.58	$906.64	+$377.06
12xmrbolt	Paula Badosaavg 64.3¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$197.15	44% 235-300 (535)
YE yesmateARB<$100	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 41.8¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$181.07	52% 346-320 (666)
└ Paula Badosa leg	Paula Badosaavg 66.3¢	$947.37	$919.25	-$28.12
└ Carol Young Suh Lee leg	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 41.8¢	$1.0K	$891.25	-$152.95
1L 1lovejump	Paula Badosaavg 91.3¢	$6.3K	$1.4K	-$124.35	52% 529-488 (1017)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Paula Badosaavg 84.9¢	$1.3K	$321.04	-$183.81	60% 3737-2531 (6268)
└ Paula Badosa leg	Paula Badosaavg 84.9¢	$194.96	$209.76	-$138.54
└ Carol Young Suh Lee leg	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 12.4¢	$158.75	$111.28	-$45.28
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 29.9¢	$2.8K	$307.06	-$834.43	67% 489-245 (734)
poshposh	Paula Badosaavg 55.8¢	$169.26	$268.8	+$99.54	44% 2201-2835 (5036)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Paula Badosaavg 62¢	$144	$140.52	-$3.48	63% 25635-15377 (41012)
BI BillBenter2026	Paula Badosaavg 78.4¢	$106.83	$119.23	+$12.4	58% 17314-12719 (30033)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 27.4¢	$103.32	$48.85	-$54.46	71% 20000-8116 (28116)
└ Carol Young Suh Lee leg	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 27.4¢	$89.13	$28.33	-$60.8
└ Paula Badosa leg	Paula Badosaavg 63.1¢	$14.19	$20.52	+$6.33
tradecraft<$100	Paula Badosaavg 86¢	$30.71	$31.25	+$0.54	52% 5637-5262 (10899)
EF efntrick<$100	Paula Badosaavg 92.5¢	$33.1	$30	-$3.1	48% 3551-3797 (7348)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 30¢	$19.2	$20.8	+$1.6	57% 23972-18438 (42410)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 0.3¢	$1.05	$16.37	+$15.32	55% 2064-1680 (3744)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Carol Young Suh Leeavg 29.3¢	$9.6	$10.65	+$1.05	62% 13301-8165 (21466)

UpTheBlues

Paula Badosa

Invested

$18,802.04

Value

$20.7K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

RN1

Paula Badosa

Invested

$10,700.23

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$443.67

Record

54%

50820-42775 (93595)

Momo63

Paula Badosa

Invested

$10,059.71

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$86.1

Record

93%

756-57 (813)

HomeRunHazard

Paula Badosa

Invested

$8,447.15

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$948.38

Record

55%

14758-12309 (27067)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR

Carol Young Suh Lee

Invested

$4,432.9

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$87.9

Record

51%

102-97 (199)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Paula Badosa

Invested

$3,738.42

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$7.23

Record

53%

12837-11424 (24261)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Carol Young Suh Lee

Invested

$2,326.85

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$298.54

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

Both legs:

Carol Young Suh Lee$1,797.279.1¢-$78.52

Paula Badosa$529.5853.3¢+$377.06

12xmrbolt

Paula Badosa

Invested

$1,701.32

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$197.15

Record

44%

235-300 (535)

yesmateARB<$100

Carol Young Suh Lee

Invested

$1,991.57

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$181.07

Record

52%

346-320 (666)

Both legs:

Paula Badosa$947.3766.3¢-$28.12

Carol Young Suh Lee$1,044.241.8¢-$152.95

1lovejump

Paula Badosa

Invested

$6,260.67

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$124.35

Record

52%

529-488 (1017)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Paula Badosa

Invested

$1,320.84

Value

$321.04

PnL

-$183.81

Record

60%

3737-2531 (6268)

Both legs:

Paula Badosa$194.9684.9¢-$138.54

Carol Young Suh Lee$158.7512.4¢-$45.28

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR

Carol Young Suh Lee

Invested

$2,843.13

Value

$307.06

PnL

-$834.43

Record

67%

489-245 (734)

poshposh

Paula Badosa

Invested

$169.26

Value

$268.8

PnL

+$99.54

Record

44%

2201-2835 (5036)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Paula Badosa

Invested

$144

Value

$140.52

PnL

-$3.48

Record

63%

25635-15377 (41012)

BillBenter2026

Paula Badosa

Invested

$106.83

Value

$119.23

PnL

+$12.4

Record

58%

17314-12719 (30033)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Carol Young Suh Lee

Invested

$103.32

Value

$48.85

PnL

-$54.46

Record

71%

20000-8116 (28116)

Both legs:

Carol Young Suh Lee$89.1327.4¢-$60.8

Paula Badosa$14.1963.1¢+$6.33

tradecraft<$100

Paula Badosa

Invested

$30.71

Value

$31.25

PnL

+$0.54

Record

52%

5637-5262 (10899)

efntrick<$100

Paula Badosa

Invested

$33.1

Value

$30

PnL

-$3.1

Record

48%

3551-3797 (7348)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Carol Young Suh Lee

Invested

$19.2

Value

$20.8

PnL

+$1.6

Record

57%

23972-18438 (42410)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Carol Young Suh Lee

Invested

$1.05

Value

$16.37

PnL

+$15.32

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Carol Young Suh Lee

Invested

$9.6

Value

$10.65

PnL

+$1.05

Record

62%

13301-8165 (21466)

Research grade

NeutralPaula Badosa at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Paula Badosa

12 of 17 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Paula Badosa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.