Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ekaterina Alexandrova, while the market favors Ann Li (53%). 10 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Pan Pacific Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova

10 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Ekaterina Alexandrova (48%) · Ekaterina Alexandrova at 48¢ · $70K held · ends Nov 3

Ann Li53¢Ekaterina Alexandrova47¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Consensus Traders

Ekaterina Alexandrova 48%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$69.7K

Combined PnL

-$81.39

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 47.5¢

-7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralEkaterina Alexandrova at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ekaterina Alexandrova

10 of 21 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Ann Li 53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ann Li53%

Ekaterina Alexandrova48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ekaterina Alexandrova10 traders

Total Value$36.2K

Total Shares71,342

Combined PnL-$272.66

Ann Li11 traders

Total Value$29.4K

Total Shares60,682

Combined PnL+$191.27

Ekaterina Alexandrova — 48%Ann Li — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 50.4¢	$29.4K	$29.4K	+$56.09	48% 97-104 (201)
RN1	Ann Liavg 49.2¢	$14.0K	$14.1K	+$90.64	54% 54908-46856 (101764)
KK Kkunn	Ann Liavg 47¢	$12.7K	$12.8K	+$135	44% 209-270 (479)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Ann Liavg 49.6¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$54.94	52% 13435-12289 (25724)
└ Ann Li leg	Ann Liavg 49.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$1.84
└ Ekaterina Alexandrova leg	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$53.1
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 59.7¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$347	51% 1150-1087 (2237)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 53¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$15.84	59% 43528-29978 (73506)
tradecraftCTR	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 53¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$72.99	52% 5785-5401 (11186)
TRCMCTR	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$15	55% 3884-3115 (6999)
LI Lilybaeum	Ann Liavg 46¢	$808.23	$817.01	+$8.79	62% 13556-8378 (21934)
VeryLucky888	Ann Liavg 46¢	$715.56	$718.72	+$7.73	58% 39876-28789 (68665)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Ann Liavg 44.7¢	$699.78	$699.56	+$35.76	53% 558-502 (1060)
└ Ann Li leg	Ann Liavg 44.7¢	$344.94	$413.16	+$69.95
└ Ekaterina Alexandrova leg	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 52.1¢	$321	$286.39	-$34.19
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 53¢	$596.55	$597.5	+$11.55	60% 3863-2610 (6473)
└ Ekaterina Alexandrova leg	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 53¢	$324	$308.72	-$15.28
└ Ann Li leg	Ann Liavg 45.2¢	$263.52	$288.78	+$26.83
ZaiZoiBele	Ann Liavg 59¢	$401.2	$357	-$44.2	80% 4926-1221 (6147)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Ann Liavg 46¢	$200.62	$204.98	+$4.36	51% 3874-3790 (7664)
HO HomeRunHazard	Ann Liavg 58¢	$190.14	$175.38	-$14.75	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
HRTradingCTR	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 53¢	$168.2	$160.89	-$7.31	54% 2299-1927 (4226)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Ann Liavg 46.1¢	$106.05	$107.07	+$1.02	57% 27287-20178 (47465)
NO Notradecopy<$100	Ann Liavg 46¢	$85.98	$87.85	+$1.87	49% 3880-4063 (7943)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 54¢	$45.36	$44.52	-$0.84	56% 6768-5418 (12186)
FL flatbarrelCTR	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 53¢	$1.6K	$35.64	+$142.67	58% 2716-1945 (4661)
EF efntrick<$100	Ann Liavg 47¢	$21.15	$22.28	+$1.13	48% 3588-3842 (7430)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 53¢	$20	$19.81	-$0.19	67% 22973-11361 (34334)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Ann Liavg 55.4¢	$8.87	$8.56	-$0.31	58% 18244-13408 (31652)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Ekaterina Alexandrovaavg 53¢	$318	$7.16	-$12.24	56% 1771-1385 (3156)

robustmstCTR

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Invested

$29,365.43

Value

$29.4K

PnL

+$56.09

Record

48%

97-104 (201)

RN1

Ann Li

Invested

$13,995.63

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$90.64

Record

54%

54908-46856 (101764)

Kkunn

Ann Li

Invested

$12,689.97

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$135

Record

44%

209-270 (479)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Ann Li

Invested

$2,897.76

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$54.94

Record

52%

13435-12289 (25724)

Both legs:

Ann Li$1,768.3749.6¢-$1.84

Ekaterina Alexandrova$1,129.3953¢-$53.1

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Invested

$2,030

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$347

Record

51%

1150-1087 (2237)

UpTheBluesCTR

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Invested

$1,679.04

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$15.84

Record

59%

43528-29978 (73506)

tradecraftCTR

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Invested

$1,654.33

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$72.99

Record

52%

5785-5401 (11186)

TRCMCTR

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Invested

$1,590

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$15

Record

55%

3884-3115 (6999)

Lilybaeum

Ann Li

Invested

$808.23

Value

$817.01

PnL

+$8.79

Record

62%

13556-8378 (21934)

VeryLucky888

Ann Li

Invested

$715.56

Value

$718.72

PnL

+$7.73

Record

58%

39876-28789 (68665)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Ann Li

Invested

$699.78

Value

$699.56

PnL

+$35.76

Record

53%

558-502 (1060)

Both legs:

Ann Li$344.9444.7¢+$69.95

Ekaterina Alexandrova$32152.1¢-$34.19

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Invested

$596.55

Value

$597.5

PnL

+$11.55

Record

60%

3863-2610 (6473)

Both legs:

Ekaterina Alexandrova$32453¢-$15.28

Ann Li$263.5245.2¢+$26.83

ZaiZoiBele

Ann Li

Invested

$401.2

Value

$357

PnL

-$44.2

Record

80%

4926-1221 (6147)

GamblingAddict12345

Ann Li

Invested

$200.62

Value

$204.98

PnL

+$4.36

Record

51%

3874-3790 (7664)

HomeRunHazard

Ann Li

Invested

$190.14

Value

$175.38

PnL

-$14.75

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

HRTradingCTR

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Invested

$168.2

Value

$160.89

PnL

-$7.31

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

LeLynxMalynx

Ann Li

Invested

$106.05

Value

$107.07

PnL

+$1.02

Record

57%

27287-20178 (47465)

Notradecopy<$100

Ann Li

Invested

$85.98

Value

$87.85

PnL

+$1.87

Record

49%

3880-4063 (7943)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Invested

$45.36

Value

$44.52

PnL

-$0.84

Record

56%

6768-5418 (12186)

flatbarrelCTR

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Invested

$1,590

Value

$35.64

PnL

+$142.67

Record

58%

2716-1945 (4661)

efntrick<$100

Ann Li

Invested

$21.15

Value

$22.28

PnL

+$1.13

Record

48%

3588-3842 (7430)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Invested

$20

Value

$19.81

PnL

-$0.19

Record

67%

22973-11361 (34334)

BillBenter2026<$100

Ann Li

Invested

$8.87

Value

$8.56

PnL

-$0.31

Record

58%

18244-13408 (31652)

SchruteBucksCTR

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Invested

$318

Value

$7.16

PnL

-$12.24

Record

56%

1771-1385 (3156)

Research grade

NeutralEkaterina Alexandrova at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ekaterina Alexandrova

10 of 21 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Ann Li 53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ekaterina Alexandrova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.