Will Manchester City WFC win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 53¢ · $989 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$989.22
$43.07
45.3¢ → 53¢
+17% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 45.4¢ | $721.88 | $747.79 | +$25.91 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | Yesavg 54¢ | $203.82 | $218.92 | +$15.1 | 55% 1306-1048 (2354) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 43.1¢ | $11.53 | $11.9 | +$0.37 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $5.5 | $5.8 | +$0.3 | 55% 4880-4051 (8931) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $2.59 | $2.94 | +$0.35 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $1.29 | $1.26 | -$0.03 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $4.29 | $0.6 | +$1.07 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
RN1Invested
$721.88
Value
$747.79
PnL
+$25.91
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$203.82
Value
$218.92
PnL
+$15.1
Record
55%
1306-1048 (2354)
Invested
$11.53
Value
$11.9
PnL
+$0.37
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$5.8
PnL
+$0.3
Record
55%
4880-4051 (8931)
Invested
$2.59
Value
$2.94
PnL
+$0.35
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.29
Value
$1.26
PnL
-$0.03
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$4.29
Value
$0.6
PnL
+$1.07
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.