Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 60¢ · $43 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
$42.95
-$0.26
Research grade
NeutralOver at 60%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 57.8¢ | $30.82 | $31.97 | +$1.15 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $8.13 | $8.87 | -$0.15 | 50% 7758-7812 (15570) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $3.38 | $2.11 | -$1.27 | 52% 16269-14809 (31078) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.