Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 71¢ · $483 held · ended Oct 25

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$482.85

Combined PnL

-$51.9

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$327.18

Total Shares399

Combined PnL+$4

Under4 traders

Total Value$155.67

Total Shares865

Combined PnL-$55.9

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 81¢	$323.18	$327.18	+$4	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 23.1¢	$162.98	$126.87	-$36.1	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$46.5	$27	-$19.5	63% 22561-13320 (35881)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$1.2	$0.9	-$0.3	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$0.9	$0.9	-$0	55% 43492-35800 (79292)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$323.18

Value

$327.18

PnL

+$4

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$162.98

Value

$126.87

PnL

-$36.1

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.5

Value

$27

PnL

-$19.5

Record

63%

22561-13320 (35881)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.