Will Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 66¢ · $290 held · ended Oct 25

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$290.2

Combined PnL

$86.23

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 66¢

-28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$133.2

Total Shares666

Combined PnL+$83.46

No3 traders

Total Value$157

Total Shares196

Combined PnL+$2.77

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 7.4¢	$48.6	$132	+$83.4	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 92¢	$78.5	$80	+$1.5	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100	Noavg 92¢	$63.78	$65	+$1.22	47% 1968-2204 (4172)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$11.95	$12	+$0.05	55% 4838-4027 (8865)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$1.14	$1.2	+$0.06	58% 1460-1073 (2533)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$48.6

Value

$132

PnL

+$83.4

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$78.5

Value

$80

PnL

+$1.5

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100

Invested

$63.78

Value

$65

PnL

+$1.22

Record

47%

1968-2204 (4172)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$11.95

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

4838-4027 (8865)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.06

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.