Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Las Vegas Aces, while the market favors Chicago Sky (52%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Las Vegas Aces (100%) · Las Vegas Aces at 49¢ · $5K held · ended Aug 1
⚠️
Avoid
Las Vegas Aces
2
Las Vegas Aces 100%
$4.6K
$-9.1K
46.6¢ → 48.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidLas Vegas Aces at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Chicago Sky 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SE sentrioCTR | Las Vegas Acesavg 46.3¢ | $4.4K | $4.6K | $-4.4K | 50% 24819-24509 (49328) |
PU purplegattoCTR | Las Vegas Acesavg 47¢ | $4.7K | — | $-4.7K | 50% 5732-5815 (11547) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.