Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (96%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 150.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 3.6¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 27

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$227.38

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 3.6¢

-93% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares11,643

Combined PnL+$180.12

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,890

Combined PnL+$47.27

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE leungchihangCTR	Overavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$150	51% 41-40 (81)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$44.9	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Overavg 48¢	$412.97	$443.09	+$30.12	54% 556-474 (1030)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR	Overavg 50¢	$391.36	$391.36	+$0	54% 1242-1046 (2288)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 50¢	$77	$77	+$0	54% 2869-2443 (5312)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 49.7¢	$61.16	$61.5	+$0.24	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Underavg 50¢	$50	$50	+$0	51% 1144-1084 (2228)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 62¢	$26.35	$28.48	+$2.13	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

leungchihangCTR

Over

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$150

Record

51%

41-40 (81)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,200.14

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$44.9

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Over

Invested

$412.97

Value

$443.09

PnL

+$30.12

Record

54%

556-474 (1030)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR

Over

Invested

$391.36

Value

$391.36

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1242-1046 (2288)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$77

Value

$77

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2869-2443 (5312)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$61.16

Value

$61.5

PnL

+$0.24

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Under

Invested

$50

Value

$50

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1144-1084 (2228)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$26.35

Value

$28.48

PnL

+$2.13

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.9%

3.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1952.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

2052.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.