Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-1.5)
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Atlanta Dream (50%) · Atlanta Dream at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Atlanta Dream
2
Atlanta Dream 50%
$2.0K
-$1.04
Research grade
AvoidAtlanta Dream at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MAGATheeStallion | Atlanta Dreamavg 54¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$0 | 58% 232-165 (397) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Golden State Valkyriesavg 48¢ | $39.57 | $39.1 | -$1.05 | 57% 26839-19987 (46826) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.