Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 66¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$438.67

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 65.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,764

Combined PnL+$42.52

No4 traders

Total Value$768.73

Total Shares2,207

Combined PnL+$396.15

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

342h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (2 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hannah-Montana	Yesavg 63.9¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$42.25	67% 184-92 (276)
AJ AJSVARB<$100	Yesavg 66.2¢	$1.1K	$780.03	+$5	36% 13086-22900 (35986)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.2¢	$479.57	$470.56	-$64.79
└ No leg	Noavg 33.5¢	$296.31	$309.48	+$69.8
GohstCTR	Noavg 6¢	$74.79	$436.59	+$317.88	49% 722-756 (1478)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 29.1¢	$229.76	$272.58	+$42.82	64% 13150-7530 (20680)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$24	$57.79	+$35.48	17% 3153-14932 (18085)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$35.75	$36.03	+$0.27	56% 3416-2671 (6087)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$1.79	$1.77	-$0.03	38% 67-108 (175)

Hannah-Montana

Yes

Invested

$2,368.55

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$42.25

Record

67%

184-92 (276)

AJSVARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,118.44

Value

$780.03

PnL

+$5

Record

36%

13086-22900 (35986)

Both legs:

Yes$479.5766.2¢-$64.79

No$296.3133.5¢+$69.8

GohstCTR

Invested

$74.79

Value

$436.59

PnL

+$317.88

Record

49%

722-756 (1478)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$229.76

Value

$272.58

PnL

+$42.82

Record

64%

13150-7530 (20680)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$57.79

PnL

+$35.48

Record

17%

3153-14932 (18085)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.75

Value

$36.03

PnL

+$0.27

Record

56%

3416-2671 (6087)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.79

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

67-108 (175)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

342h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (2 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.4%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

148.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.