Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (81%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Zinedine Zidane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 20¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$1.3K
-$33.75
41.1¢ → 19.5¢
-53% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
186h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rex416 | Yesavg 67.3¢ | $750 | $648.75 | +$144.2 | 57% 2243-1706 (3949) |
 viniiCTR | Noavg 36.7¢ | $487.83 | $381.91 | -$62.37 | 74% 2393-862 (3255) |
 StarMasterCTR | Noavg 38.7¢ | $116 | $96 | -$14 | 53% 1764-1555 (3319) |
 Tenebrus7CTR | Noavg 41.7¢ | $103.51 | $83.52 | -$19.99 | 73% 2877-1050 (3927) |
 smellyEllieCTR | Noavg 65.2¢ | $164.04 | $82.44 | -$81.59 | 50% 855-865 (1720) |
Rex416Invested
$750
Value
$648.75
PnL
+$144.2
Record
57%
2243-1706 (3949)
viniiCTRInvested
$487.83
Value
$381.91
PnL
-$62.37
Record
74%
2393-862 (3255)
StarMasterCTRInvested
$116
Value
$96
PnL
-$14
Record
53%
1764-1555 (3319)
Tenebrus7CTRInvested
$103.51
Value
$83.52
PnL
-$19.99
Record
73%
2877-1050 (3927)
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$164.04
Value
$82.44
PnL
-$81.59
Record
50%
855-865 (1720)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.