Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.9K
$78.58
88.4¢ → 96.9¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4717h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM amis | Noavg 90.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.9K | +$108.21 | 88% 246-34 (280) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $7.7 | $53.3 | +$45.49 | 18% 3341-15435 (18776) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.2¢ | $58.56 | $11.56 | -$47 | 60% 972-645 (1617) |
 XieGuangKunCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.8¢ | $29.08 | $2.06 | -$27.03 | 51% 364-348 (712) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $0.16 | -$1.1 | 49% 66-70 (136) |
Invested
$1,249.94
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$108.21
Record
88%
246-34 (280)
2B9S<$100Invested
$7.7
Value
$53.3
PnL
+$45.49
Record
18%
3341-15435 (18776)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$58.56
Value
$11.56
PnL
-$47
Record
60%
972-645 (1617)
XieGuangKunCTR<$100Invested
$29.08
Value
$2.06
PnL
-$27.03
Record
51%
364-348 (712)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$1.1
Record
49%
66-70 (136)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.