Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $19.5M and $21M?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 12¢ · $876 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$875.73
$136.99
25¢ → 12.2¢
-51% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
54h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990f | Noavg 60.8¢ | $209.66 | $329.53 | +$119.87 | 80% 307-78 (385) |
TR troimCTR | Yesavg 21.2¢ | $296.8 | $296.8 | +$0 | 36% 371-657 (1028) |
 The-JokerCTR | Yesavg 32.4¢ | $177.8 | $136.22 | -$41.58 | 68% 1426-673 (2099) |
0X 0x5095e97281f28d4d8549fd3834802c24cbb793e<$100 | Noavg 61.5¢ | $64.58 | $77.8 | +$10.4 | 52% 287-263 (550) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $127.71 | $35.37 | +$48.31 | 36% 13223-23096 (36319) |
Invested
$209.66
Value
$329.53
PnL
+$119.87
Record
80%
307-78 (385)
Invested
$296.8
Value
$296.8
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
371-657 (1028)
The-JokerCTRInvested
$177.8
Value
$136.22
PnL
-$41.58
Record
68%
1426-673 (2099)
Invested
$64.58
Value
$77.8
PnL
+$10.4
Record
52%
287-263 (550)
Invested
$127.71
Value
$35.37
PnL
+$48.31
Record
36%
13223-23096 (36319)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.