Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $18M and $19.5M?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 75¢ · $906 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$905.76
$341.81
38.5¢ → 75¢
+95% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990f | Yesavg 51.4¢ | $264.11 | $406.76 | +$142.65 | 80% 307-78 (385) |
 Nostdam | Yesavg 36.6¢ | $168.53 | $304.74 | +$66.29 | 54% 1397-1197 (2594) |
AJ AJSV | Yesavg 16¢ | $24.54 | $121.01 | +$88.23 | 36% 13062-22853 (35915) |
 cat-dog<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $25.45 | $73.25 | +$44.64 | 74% 73-26 (99) |
Invested
$264.11
Value
$406.76
PnL
+$142.65
Record
80%
307-78 (385)
NostdamInvested
$168.53
Value
$304.74
PnL
+$66.29
Record
54%
1397-1197 (2594)
Invested
$24.54
Value
$121.01
PnL
+$88.23
Record
36%
13062-22853 (35915)
cat-dog<$100Invested
$25.45
Value
$73.25
PnL
+$44.64
Record
74%
73-26 (99)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.