Will Yaxel Lendeborg win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 76¢ · $429 held · ends May 1, 2027

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Sat, May 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$428.58

Combined PnL

$31.06

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 75.8¢

-15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$353.7

Total Shares437

Combined PnL-$12.73

Yes1 trader

Total Value$74.88

Total Shares309

Combined PnL+$43.79

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tetrase	Noavg 92¢	$236	$198.24	-$19.02	60% 793-534 (1327)
UbuntuTrading	Noavg 85.3¢	$341.2	$154.6	+$9.45	57% 3037-2281 (5318)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.4¢	$12.05	$74.88	+$43.79	50% 1631-1622 (3253)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 92.6¢	$159.2	$0.86	-$3.17	53% 6198-5435 (11633)

tetrase

Invested

$236

Value

$198.24

PnL

-$19.02

Record

60%

793-534 (1327)

UbuntuTrading

Invested

$341.2

Value

$154.6

PnL

+$9.45

Record

57%

3037-2281 (5318)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.05

Value

$74.88

PnL

+$43.79

Record

50%

1631-1622 (3253)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$159.2

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$3.17

Record

53%

6198-5435 (11633)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.6%

75.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.