Will Yashar win 26-27 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 85¢ · $293 held · ends Oct 27

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$293

Combined PnL

$12.48

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 84.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$292.52

Total Shares277

Combined PnL+$12.31

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.32

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0.18

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AJ AJSV	Noavg 80.3¢	$246.28	$252	+$12.36	36% 13969-24716 (38685)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 87¢	$17.4	$17.4	+$0	32% 3859-8035 (11894)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 87¢	$17.4	$17.4	+$0	62% 18410-11080 (29490)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 86¢	$6.13	$5.72	-$0.06	43% 269-355 (624)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$1.05	$0.32	+$0.18	80% 10701-2731 (13432)

AJSV

Invested

$246.28

Value

$252

PnL

+$12.36

Record

36%

13969-24716 (38685)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$17.4

Value

$17.4

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

3859-8035 (11894)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$17.4

Value

$17.4

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

18410-11080 (29490)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$6.13

Value

$5.72

PnL

-$0.06

Record

43%

269-355 (624)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$0.18

Record

80%

10701-2731 (13432)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.