Will XRP dip to $0.80 in October?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$5.0K
$38.64
97.9¢ → 96.8¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $3.5K | $3.4K | +$39.07 | 65% 2310-1255 (3565) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$0.2 | 72% 225-86 (311) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $108.44 | $108.22 | -$0.22 | 54% 739-627 (1366) |
Invested
$3,464.28
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$39.07
Record
65%
2310-1255 (3565)
Invested
$1,480.7
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$0.2
Record
72%
225-86 (311)
Invested
$108.44
Value
$108.22
PnL
-$0.22
Record
54%
739-627 (1366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.