Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $118 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$118
-$1.11
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.95 | -$0.03 | 48% 3101-3334 (6435) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.95 | -$0.03 | 34% 273-519 (792) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.95 | -$0.01 | 56% 1734-1345 (3079) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.95 | -$0.03 | 35% 269-495 (764) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.95 | -$0.03 | 35% 218-411 (629) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $17.78 | $17.76 | -$0.03 | 34% 243-478 (721) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $1.04 | $0.08 | -$0.95 | 36% 13723-24173 (37896) |
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.95
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
3101-3334 (6435)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.95
PnL
-$0.03
Record
34%
273-519 (792)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.95
PnL
-$0.01
Record
56%
1734-1345 (3079)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.95
PnL
-$0.03
Record
35%
269-495 (764)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.95
PnL
-$0.03
Record
35%
218-411 (629)
Invested
$17.78
Value
$17.76
PnL
-$0.03
Record
34%
243-478 (721)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$0.95
Record
36%
13723-24173 (37896)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.