Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 in October?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$4.9K
$614.15
84¢ → 95.2¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV Avamax | Noavg 90.5¢ | $3.5K | $3.8K | +$269.09 | 80% 381-94 (475) |
C0 C03B | Noavg 89¢ | $519.62 | $555.82 | +$58.09 | 85% 683-119 (802) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 31.6¢ | $204.85 | $523.22 | +$318.37 | 59% 258-176 (434) |
 AliciaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $32.67 | $5.81 | -$31.4 | 76% 417-129 (546) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.