Will Wu Hsiu-hua win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 29

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$68.54

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 74¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,008

Combined PnL-$122.58

No2 traders

Total Value$525.79

Total Shares1,885

Combined PnL+$191.12

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 83.9¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$127.48	57% 15159-11586 (26745)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 15.4¢	$279.57	$509.07	+$193.14	53% 1058-951 (2009)
ST stupid22	Yesavg 82¢	$247.17	$226.07	-$21.1	94% 395-26 (421)
FrozenParasite	Yesavg 63.5¢	$144.25	$170.25	+$26	55% 435-354 (789)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$18.74	$16.73	-$2.01	62% 20216-12621 (32837)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$1,331.95

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$127.48

Record

57%

15159-11586 (26745)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$279.57

Value

$509.07

PnL

+$193.14

Record

53%

1058-951 (2009)

stupid22

Yes

Invested

$247.17

Value

$226.07

PnL

-$21.1

Record

94%

395-26 (421)

FrozenParasite

Yes

Invested

$144.25

Value

$170.25

PnL

+$26

Record

55%

435-354 (789)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$18.74

Value

$16.73

PnL

-$2.01

Record

62%

20216-12621 (32837)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.8%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.