Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $21 held · ends Jan 8, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$21.49
-$60.15
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
4654h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
23 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $18.29 | $18.32 | +$0.03 | 32% 5595-11640 (17235) |
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $1.89 | $1.89 | +$0 | 35% 2783-5180 (7963) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $14.74 | $1 | -$13.74 | 58% 2958-2113 (5071) |
HO HourglassCTR | Yes | $1.6K | $0.25 | -$46.47 | 78% 8289-2276 (10565) |
 flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.03 | $0.03 | +$0.03 | 57% 904-688 (1592) |
Invested
$18.29
Value
$18.32
PnL
+$0.03
Record
32%
5595-11640 (17235)
Invested
$1.89
Value
$1.89
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2783-5180 (7963)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$14.74
Value
$1
PnL
-$13.74
Record
58%
2958-2113 (5071)
Invested
$1,556.81
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$46.47
Record
78%
8289-2276 (10565)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
+$0.03
Record
57%
904-688 (1592)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.