Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 81¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$4.3K
$2.0K
Research grade
NeutralYes at 81%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE dedidanc | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $1.4K | $2.3K | +$875.49 | 56% 92-71 (163) |
 FrozenParasite | Yes | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$924.04 | 55% 434-353 (787) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | $272.52 | $272.52 | +$220.99 | 53% 1060-953 (2013) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Noavg 60.2¢ | $58.42 | $23.41 | -$35.01 | 77% 8528-2565 (11093) |
Invested
$1,402.09
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$875.49
Record
56%
92-71 (163)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$1,708.17
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$924.04
Record
55%
434-353 (787)
Invested
$272.52
Value
$272.52
PnL
+$220.99
Record
53%
1060-953 (2013)
Invested
$58.42
Value
$23.41
PnL
-$35.01
Record
77%
8528-2565 (11093)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.