Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 71¢ · $774 held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$773.58
$71.81
62.4¢ → 70.5¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 71%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 clazzy1 | Noavg 69¢ | $281.64 | $287.68 | +$6.03 | 62% 367-222 (589) |
 BlondBeast | Noavg 55.4¢ | $138.5 | $176.25 | +$37.75 | 70% 777-340 (1117) |
 smellyEllie | Noavg 58¢ | $130.69 | $158.85 | +$28.16 | 50% 923-939 (1862) |
 Barkshire-HathawayCTR | Yesavg 27.7¢ | $149.38 | $149.38 | +$0 | 64% 1074-616 (1690) |
BA badatthisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $1.65 | $1.43 | -$0.13 | 65% 2211-1171 (3382) |
clazzy1Invested
$281.64
Value
$287.68
PnL
+$6.03
Record
62%
367-222 (589)
BlondBeastInvested
$138.5
Value
$176.25
PnL
+$37.75
Record
70%
777-340 (1117)
smellyEllieInvested
$130.69
Value
$158.85
PnL
+$28.16
Record
50%
923-939 (1862)
Barkshire-HathawayCTRInvested
$149.38
Value
$149.38
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
1074-616 (1690)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.43
PnL
-$0.13
Record
65%
2211-1171 (3382)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.