Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 80-82%?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 34¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$-3.2K
84¢ → 34¢
-60% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 34%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anoin123CTR | Noavg 84¢ | $3.8K | $663.23 | $-3.2K | 46% 428-496 (924) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR | Noavg 84¢ | $328.51 | $323.74 | -$4.76 | 39% 148-230 (378) |
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Noavg 69.4¢ | $187.02 | $126.49 | -$0.18 | 36% 13223-23096 (36319) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 18¢ | $47.21 | $83.87 | +$55.96 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69.4¢ | $87.04 | $42.63 | -$56.14 | |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $1.31 | $8.38 | +$3.41 | 51% 107-104 (211) |
Invested
$3,842.16
Value
$663.23
PnL
$-3.2K
Record
46%
428-496 (924)
crypto-basenjiCTRInvested
$328.51
Value
$323.74
PnL
-$4.76
Record
39%
148-230 (378)
Invested
$187.02
Value
$126.49
PnL
-$0.18
Record
36%
13223-23096 (36319)
Both legs:
Invested
$1.31
Value
$8.38
PnL
+$3.41
Record
51%
107-104 (211)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.