Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 76-78%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 33¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.8K
$194.16
28.1¢ → 33¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 33%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 28.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$181.14 | 52% 977-906 (1883) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 67.4¢ | $347.5 | $280.74 | -$7.35 | 56% 3222-2549 (5771) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $64.47 | $64.47 | +$0 | 44% 4853-6187 (11040) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.7¢ | $35.84 | $53.57 | +$17.73 | 39% 147-230 (377) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $6.05 | $8.68 | +$2.63 | 51% 106-101 (207) |
Invested
$1,288.91
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$181.14
Record
52%
977-906 (1883)
Invested
$347.5
Value
$280.74
PnL
-$7.35
Record
56%
3222-2549 (5771)
Invested
$64.47
Value
$64.47
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
4853-6187 (11040)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100Invested
$35.84
Value
$53.57
PnL
+$17.73
Record
39%
147-230 (377)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$8.68
PnL
+$2.63
Record
51%
106-101 (207)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.