Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
2 arb excluded
$1.5K
$56.8
45.3¢ → 60¢
+33% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Maplesky | Yesavg 29.2¢ | $223.06 | $504.24 | +$25.24 | — 1-1 (2) |
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Noavg 61.5¢ | $1.2K | $486.2 | +$76.22 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 61.5¢ | $449.5 | $361.52 | -$179.96 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.6¢ | $63.12 | $124.68 | +$256.18 | |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023ARB<$100 | Noavg 59.9¢ | $232.71 | $264.11 | +$31.4 | 38% 67-108 (175) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.5¢ | $106.5 | $179.83 | +$73.33 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.9¢ | $126.21 | $84.28 | -$41.93 | |
 The-Joker | Yesavg 78.3¢ | $290.82 | $222.88 | -$67.94 | 68% 1423-673 (2096) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 64.3¢ | $861.58 | $33.72 | +$99.49 | 56% 3416-2671 (6087) |
Invested
$223.06
Value
$504.24
PnL
+$25.24
Record
—
1-1 (2)
Invested
$1,206.55
Value
$486.2
PnL
+$76.22
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
Both legs:
Invested
$232.71
Value
$264.11
PnL
+$31.4
Record
38%
67-108 (175)
Both legs:
The-JokerInvested
$290.82
Value
$222.88
PnL
-$67.94
Record
68%
1423-673 (2096)
Invested
$861.58
Value
$33.72
PnL
+$99.49
Record
56%
3416-2671 (6087)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.