Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 62-66%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $914 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$914.18
$245.12
64.7¢ → 99.8¢
+54% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 59.7¢ | $817.35 | $792.89 | +$262.34 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
KU kukubaja<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $99.5 | $99.9 | +$0.4 | 84% 483-92 (575) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.27 | $13.04 | -$0.23 | 38% 67-108 (175) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $25.29 | $7.62 | -$10.67 | 17% 3153-14932 (18085) |
TY TyshaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $7.46 | $0.74 | -$6.72 | 76% 782-247 (1029) |
Invested
$817.35
Value
$792.89
PnL
+$262.34
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
Invested
$99.5
Value
$99.9
PnL
+$0.4
Record
84%
483-92 (575)
Invested
$13.27
Value
$13.04
PnL
-$0.23
Record
38%
67-108 (175)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$25.29
Value
$7.62
PnL
-$10.67
Record
17%
3153-14932 (18085)
Invested
$7.46
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$6.72
Record
76%
782-247 (1029)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.