Will Vladan Đokić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 100¢ · $18K held · ends Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$18.1K

Combined PnL

$28.67

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 99.8¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares18,211

Combined PnL+$13.46

Yes4 traders

Total Value$35.53

Total Shares4,366

Combined PnL+$15.21

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-47 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

478h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

sniperNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.6¢	$17.3K	$17.2K	-$64.93	48% 2079-2227 (4306)
VS vsdiz1337	No	$422.09	$422.09	+$14.82	— 1-11 (12)
AJ AJSV	Noavg 84¢	$349.64	$413.22	+$63.58	36% 12963-22716 (35679)
AK akoollCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$4.06	$26.93	+$22.87	— 1-0 (1)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$11.11	$5.22	-$5.89	56% 3387-2644 (6031)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$5.66	$3	-$2.66	7% 12-172 (184)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.15	$0.38	+$0.89	47% 113-130 (243)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$17,296

Value

$17.2K

PnL

-$64.93

Record

48%

2079-2227 (4306)

vsdiz1337

Invested

$422.09

Value

$422.09

PnL

+$14.82

Record

—

1-11 (12)

AJSV

Invested

$349.64

Value

$413.22

PnL

+$63.58

Record

36%

12963-22716 (35679)

akoollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.06

Value

$26.93

PnL

+$22.87

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.11

Value

$5.22

PnL

-$5.89

Record

56%

3387-2644 (6031)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.66

Value

PnL

-$2.66

Record

12-172 (184)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$0.89

Record

47%

113-130 (243)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-47 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

478h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

sniperNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.