Will Vitinha finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$2.4K
-$140.17
95.5¢ → 93.6¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Parz1vaI | Noavg 95.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$28.13 | 72% 3443-1320 (4763) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $336.97 | $489.58 | -$108.45 | 39% 148-232 (380) |
 Socialista | Noavg 94.2¢ | $236.6 | $242.58 | +$5.98 | 63% 2514-1492 (4006) |
NI niceqqqqq3 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $200 | $187.2 | -$9.57 | 54% 14-12 (26) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.