Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Vitinha finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 30¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$926.96

Smart Money Entry

9.7¢ → 29.9¢

+210% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares5,442

Combined PnL+$926.96

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
01 01258787xy48487484545122CTR	Yesavg 12.3¢	$456.22	$1.2K	+$701.25	65% 241-130 (371)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$28.09	$96.3	+$68.21	39% 148-232 (380)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$2.05	$76.76	+$158.6	—
SocialistaCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$33.76	$31.39	-$2.37	63% 2486-1481 (3967)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.8¢	$23.32	$24.6	+$1.28	54% 1825-1526 (3351)

01258787xy48487484545122CTR

Yes

Invested

$456.22

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$701.25

Record

65%

241-130 (371)

crypto-basenjiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.09

Value

$96.3

PnL

+$68.21

Record

39%

148-232 (380)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$76.76

PnL

+$158.6

Record

—

SocialistaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.76

Value

$31.39

PnL

-$2.37

Record

63%

2486-1481 (3967)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.32

Value

$24.6

PnL

+$1.28

Record

54%

1825-1526 (3351)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.0%

29.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$212.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

312.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.