Will Vinícius Júnior attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$2.4K
$446.07
78.3¢ → 99.9¢
+28% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Socialista | Noavg 75¢ | $1.2K | $1.6K | +$397.78 | 63% 2639-1557 (4196) |
 vinii | Noavg 88.9¢ | $483.02 | $482.29 | -$0.73 | 73% 2627-964 (3591) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 77.6¢ | $190.27 | $244.54 | +$54.27 | 89% 4566-541 (5107) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $5.5 | $76.5 | -$5.25 | 39% 161-253 (414) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.