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YesYesNo
2B9SCTR<$100No
balthazarCTR<$100No
IstarothCTR<$100NoNo
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial second round by at least 4%?
Resolved Yes. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 50%
Total Value
$719.87
Combined PnL
$281.26
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$719.87
Total Shares720
Combined PnL+$280.35
No5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares225
Combined PnL+$0.91
Yes — 29%No — 71%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LulaVaiPerder | Yesavg 89.8¢ | $366.38 | $456.72 | +$90.34 | 75% 289-98 (387) |
MR MrConsistency | Yesavg 37¢ | $16.14 | $263.15 | +$190.01 | 42% 469-647 (1116) |
DR dromedaryyCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $5.89 | — | -$5.89 | 34% 23-44 (67) |
2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.6¢ | $34.37 | — | +$6.8 | 18% 3382-15511 (18893) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 63% 15568-9006 (24574) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 51.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 13604-23855 (37459) |
LU
LulaVaiPerderInvested
$366.38
Value
$456.72
PnL
+$90.34
Record
75%
289-98 (387)
MR
MrConsistencyInvested
$16.14
Value
$263.15
PnL
+$190.01
Record
42%
469-647 (1116)
DR
dromedaryyCTR<$100Invested
$5.89
Value
—
PnL
-$5.89
Record
34%
23-44 (67)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$34.37
Value
—
PnL
+$6.8
Record
18%
3382-15511 (18893)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
15568-9006 (24574)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
AJ
AJSVCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
13604-23855 (37459)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc31427ed...027d48
Slug
will-vicentinho-junior-win-the-2026-tocantins-gubernatorial-second-round-by-4