Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 5.5¢ · $858 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 50%
$857.9
-$452.64
35.3¢ → 5.5¢
-84% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bernardbulletin | Yesavg 58.9¢ | $463.23 | $695.79 | +$232.56 | 68% 912-432 (1344) |
 yen4uCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $752.04 | $100.88 | -$651.16 | 83% 601-121 (722) |
TH thoodr<$100 | Yesavg 91¢ | $36.4 | $37.8 | +$1.2 | 96% 534-23 (557) |
ME melganisCTR<$100 | Noavg 10.8¢ | $59.73 | $23.38 | -$35.25 | 75% 1561-522 (2083) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.