Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $15 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$14.55
-$36.23
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yes | $14.48 | $14.48 | -$36.24 | 56% 9231-7382 (16613) |
 debasedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.05 | $0.08 | +$0.01 | 59% 2271-1600 (3871) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.