Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.4K
$73.1
89.5¢ → 96.4¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1658h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 debased | Noavg 89.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$95.2 | 59% 2278-1604 (3882) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $52.45 | $28.28 | -$24.17 | 36% 1994-3513 (5507) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $7.5 | $10.5 | +$2 | 48% 2019-2222 (4241) |
BA balerinacapuchina<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $4.08 | $4.13 | +$0.05 | 73% 174-66 (240) |
 Gr33d<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $1.03 | $1.06 | +$0.02 | 80% 2697-695 (3392) |
debasedInvested
$1,274.69
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$95.2
Record
59%
2278-1604 (3882)
Invested
$52.45
Value
$28.28
PnL
-$24.17
Record
36%
1994-3513 (5507)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$7.5
Value
$10.5
PnL
+$2
Record
48%
2019-2222 (4241)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$4.13
PnL
+$0.05
Record
73%
174-66 (240)
Gr33d<$100Invested
$1.03
Value
$1.06
PnL
+$0.02
Record
80%
2697-695 (3392)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.