Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 80¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.3K
$343.94
57.4¢ → 80¢
+39% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 62.7¢ | $456 | $581.31 | +$125.31 | 74% 2583-928 (3511) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 65.1¢ | $337.78 | $355.46 | +$54.81 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
 2B9S | Noavg 29¢ | $69.89 | $191.6 | +$122.91 | 18% 3644-16107 (19751) |
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710<$100 | Noavg 50.7¢ | $52.71 | $83.56 | +$30.85 | 52% 2076-1944 (4020) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $32.3 | $42.1 | +$10.06 | 88% 2151-290 (2441) |
viniiInvested
$456
Value
$581.31
PnL
+$125.31
Record
74%
2583-928 (3511)
Invested
$337.78
Value
$355.46
PnL
+$54.81
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
2B9SInvested
$69.89
Value
$191.6
PnL
+$122.91
Record
18%
3644-16107 (19751)
Invested
$52.71
Value
$83.56
PnL
+$30.85
Record
52%
2076-1944 (4020)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100Invested
$32.3
Value
$42.1
PnL
+$10.06
Record
88%
2151-290 (2441)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.