Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 94¢ · $298 held · ends Dec 31

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$297.64

Combined PnL

$5.93

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 93.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$292.62

Total Shares313

Combined PnL+$8.82

Yes2 traders

Total Value$5.02

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$2.89

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XAE12Archangel	Noavg 91¢	$5.42	$245.87	+$6.57	65% 760-401 (1161)
Debosnys<$100	Noavg 89¢	$44.5	$46.75	+$2.25	89% 1812-224 (2036)
BA badatthisCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$3	$3.25	+$0.25	66% 2171-1115 (3286)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$4.91	$1.77	-$3.14	40% 1738-2650 (4388)

XAE12Archangel

Invested

$5.42

Value

$245.87

PnL

+$6.57

Record

65%

760-401 (1161)

Debosnys<$100

Invested

$44.5

Value

$46.75

PnL

+$2.25

Record

89%

1812-224 (2036)

badatthisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

66%

2171-1115 (3286)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.91

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$3.14

Record

40%

1738-2650 (4388)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.7%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.