Will Trump endorse Lula da Silva for President of Brazil?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.2K
$16.17
96.7¢ → 98.9¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 96¢ | $500 | $487 | +$7 | 77% 1338-396 (1734) |
 wish- | Noavg 93.7¢ | $227.02 | $239 | +$11.25 | 78% 1124-308 (1432) |
 themagicofcinema | Noavg 99.9¢ | $240.48 | $237.47 | -$3.01 | 65% 363-194 (557) |
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 98.8¢ | $163.78 | $163.46 | -$0.81 | 63% 290-170 (460) |
 Ryxon21<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $37.6 | $39.46 | +$1.74 | 71% 271-113 (384) |
Invested
$500
Value
$487
PnL
+$7
Record
77%
1338-396 (1734)
wish-Invested
$227.02
Value
$239
PnL
+$11.25
Record
78%
1124-308 (1432)
themagicofcinemaInvested
$240.48
Value
$237.47
PnL
-$3.01
Record
65%
363-194 (557)
Invested
$163.78
Value
$163.46
PnL
-$0.81
Record
63%
290-170 (460)
Ryxon21<$100Invested
$37.6
Value
$39.46
PnL
+$1.74
Record
71%
271-113 (384)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.