Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$4.8K
$267.44
89.9¢ → 95.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cat-dog | Yesavg 89¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$172.22 | 76% 96-31 (127) |
 ImJustKen | Yesavg 91¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$106.42 | 53% 3029-2636 (5665) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $44.82 | $33.61 | -$11.2 | 57% 15181-11609 (26790) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.