Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 150,000 and 170,000?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $116 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
$116.25
$1.17
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 89.7¢ | $114.07 | $114.03 | -$0.04 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.17 | $2.22 | +$1.21 | 48% 30-32 (62) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.