Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Jersey be between 3,200,000 and 3,400,000?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 76¢ · $470 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$469.62
$7.57
62.4¢ → 75.5¢
+21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 62.3¢ | $394.69 | $376.93 | +$7.24 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.2¢ | $64.28 | $55.49 | -$8.78 | 51% 35-34 (69) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 62.5¢ | $28.08 | $29.53 | +$9.45 | 18% 3644-16107 (19751) |
57 57284910CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $8 | $7.66 | -$0.34 | — 17-0 (17) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.