Will Tomáš Portlík be the next Mayor of Prague?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 10

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$885.54

Smart Money Entry

41.5¢ → 97¢

+134% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,933

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$10.79

Total Shares354

Combined PnL-$187.27

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

545h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SC Scalpoor	Noavg 38.4¢	$662.67	$1.7K	+$1.0K	83% 30-6 (36)
Relaccsed	Noavg 53.4¢	$74.16	$134.53	+$60.44	56% 1176-938 (2114)
archaic<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$63.78	$64.25	+$0.47	85% 1850-335 (2185)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 56¢	$198.06	$10.79	-$187.27	57% 800-614 (1414)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 56¢	$1.68	$2.91	+$1.23	52% 2371-2146 (4517)

Scalpoor

Invested

$662.67

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

83%

30-6 (36)

Relaccsed

Invested

$74.16

Value

$134.53

PnL

+$60.44

Record

56%

1176-938 (2114)

archaic<$100

Invested

$63.78

Value

$64.25

PnL

+$0.47

Record

85%

1850-335 (2185)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$198.06

Value

$10.79

PnL

-$187.27

Record

57%

800-614 (1414)

merod<$100

Invested

$1.68

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$1.23

Record

52%

2371-2146 (4517)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

545h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.