Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 13¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.1K
-$568.2
25.1¢ → 12.8¢
-49% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4032h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
7 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GohstCTR | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $1.1K | $545.42 | -$564.52 | 49% 722-756 (1478) |
AV aviato | Noavg 91.2¢ | $372.07 | $356.06 | -$11.94 | 85% 2377-404 (2781) |
SH shiifoo | Noavg 85¢ | $229.73 | $235.31 | +$5.58 | 61% 2675-1696 (4371) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.28 | $3.55 | +$3.09 | 48% 1998-2168 (4166) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $0.76 | $0.35 | -$0.41 | 40% 1738-2653 (4391) |
GohstCTRInvested
$1,066.96
Value
$545.42
PnL
-$564.52
Record
49%
722-756 (1478)
Invested
$372.07
Value
$356.06
PnL
-$11.94
Record
85%
2377-404 (2781)
Invested
$229.73
Value
$235.31
PnL
+$5.58
Record
61%
2675-1696 (4371)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.28
Value
$3.55
PnL
+$3.09
Record
48%
1998-2168 (4166)
Invested
$0.76
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$0.41
Record
40%
1738-2653 (4391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.