Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$3.9K
$239.8
86.7¢ → 95.8¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
3741h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nicoco89 | Yesavg 86.2¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$345.56 | 65% 1074-579 (1653) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Yesavg 91¢ | $388.4 | $408.71 | +$20.1 | 77% 10965-3342 (14307) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $65.17 | $19.72 | -$45.46 | 42% 1661-2260 (3921) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Noavg 27.4¢ | $95.38 | $14.6 | -$80.78 | 56% 954-753 (1707) |
BA balerinacapuchina<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $4.94 | $5.31 | +$0.37 | 73% 174-66 (240) |
nicoco89Invested
$3,377.53
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$345.56
Record
65%
1074-579 (1653)
Invested
$388.4
Value
$408.71
PnL
+$20.1
Record
77%
10965-3342 (14307)
Invested
$65.17
Value
$19.72
PnL
-$45.46
Record
42%
1661-2260 (3921)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$95.38
Value
$14.6
PnL
-$80.78
Record
56%
954-753 (1707)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$5.31
PnL
+$0.37
Record
73%
174-66 (240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.