Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 80¢ · $865 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$864.64
-$19.88
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI KiruaTrading | Noavg 78.9¢ | $503.24 | $499 | +$5.52 | 55% 209-170 (379) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 74.2¢ | $213.4 | $217.65 | +$5.18 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.2¢ | $156.7 | $169.04 | +$12.34 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.3¢ | $55.61 | $48.6 | -$7.16 | |
 Gemini456CTR | Yesavg 23.4¢ | $173.4 | $148 | -$25.4 | 73% 262-97 (359) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.