Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$4.4K
$3.0K
54.1¢ → 97.7¢
+81% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rabbit007 | Yesavg 54.4¢ | $886.5 | $4.4K | +$2.9K | 53% 349-305 (654) |
 theta-thunberg<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $19.87 | $58.79 | +$39.22 | 56% 419-330 (749) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.