Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 7, 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 82¢ · $938 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$937.73
$164.03
65.3¢ → 81.5¢
+25% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
182h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 clazzy1 | Noavg 69.8¢ | $430.98 | $478.4 | +$69.03 | 62% 340-207 (547) |
ME melonmanm | Noavg 58.3¢ | $184.4 | $312.61 | +$105.95 | 64% 430-240 (670) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 30.1¢ | $267.65 | $86.72 | +$46.95 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
 CarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.7¢ | $81.4 | $40 | -$40.4 | 68% 4060-1941 (6001) |
 KimchiCapitalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $38 | $20 | -$17.5 | 73% 373-139 (512) |
clazzy1Invested
$430.98
Value
$478.4
PnL
+$69.03
Record
62%
340-207 (547)
Invested
$184.4
Value
$312.61
PnL
+$105.95
Record
64%
430-240 (670)
Invested
$267.65
Value
$86.72
PnL
+$46.95
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
CarCTR<$100Invested
$81.4
Value
$40
PnL
-$40.4
Record
68%
4060-1941 (6001)
KimchiCapitalCTR<$100Invested
$38
Value
$20
PnL
-$17.5
Record
73%
373-139 (512)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.