Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 79¢ · $6K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$6.0K
$1.8K
69.5¢ → 78.5¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 perfectnostalgia | Yesavg 60.5¢ | $1.8K | $3.2K | +$1.4K | 55% 331-269 (600) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Yesavg 82.1¢ | $2.4K | $2.8K | +$375.32 | — 1-1 (2) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.