Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $945 held · ended Sep 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$944.78
$56.99
88.5¢ → 94.2¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+25 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GollumGekko | Noavg 89.8¢ | $633.75 | $664.34 | +$30.59 | 69% 2048-916 (2964) |
 Rex416 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $150 | $141.23 | -$0.68 | 57% 2367-1764 (4131) |
 Relaccsed<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $60.77 | $76.43 | +$15.67 | 56% 1153-914 (2067) |
 vinii<$100 | Noavg 74.1¢ | $31.14 | $39.75 | +$8.46 | 74% 2499-895 (3394) |
 Ahpo<$100 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $20.09 | $23.03 | +$2.94 | 86% 1570-249 (1819) |
GollumGekkoInvested
$633.75
Value
$664.34
PnL
+$30.59
Record
69%
2048-916 (2964)
Rex416Invested
$150
Value
$141.23
PnL
-$0.68
Record
57%
2367-1764 (4131)
Relaccsed<$100Invested
$60.77
Value
$76.43
PnL
+$15.67
Record
56%
1153-914 (2067)
vinii<$100Invested
$31.14
Value
$39.75
PnL
+$8.46
Record
74%
2499-895 (3394)
Ahpo<$100Invested
$20.09
Value
$23.03
PnL
+$2.94
Record
86%
1570-249 (1819)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.